/* 

  Asia problem in Picat.

  Cf my Gamble model gamble_asia.rkt

  This program was created by Hakan Kjellerstrand, hakank@gmail.com
  See also my Picat page: http://www.hakank.org/picat/

*/

import ppl_distributions, ppl_utils.
import util.

main => go.

/*

  var : smoker
  Probabilities:
  true: 0.6674836601307189
  false: 0.3325163398692810
  mean = [true = 0.667484,false = 0.332516]

  var : tb
  Probabilities:
  false: 0.9256535947712419
  true: 0.0743464052287582
  mean = [false = 0.925654,true = 0.0743464]

  var : cancer
  Probabilities:
  false: 0.9242919389978214
  true: 0.0757080610021787
  mean = [false = 0.924292,true = 0.0757081]

  var : tb or cancer
  Probabilities:
  false: 0.8540305010893247
  true: 0.1459694989106754
  mean = [false = 0.854031,true = 0.145969]

  var : bronchitis
  Probabilities:
  true: 1.0000000000000000
  mean = [true = 1.0]

  var : xray
  Probabilities:
  false: 0.8090958605664488
  true: 0.1909041394335512
  mean = [false = 0.809096,true = 0.190904]

  var : dyspnoea
  Probabilities:
  true: 1.0000000000000000
  mean = [true = 1.0]


*/
go ?=>
  reset_store,
  run_model(10_000,$model,[show_probs_trunc,mean]),
  nl,
  % fail,
  nl.
go => true.
  
  
model() =>
  Smoker     = flip(0.5),
  TB         = flip(condt(Smoker,0.05,0.1)),
  Cancer     = flip(condt(Smoker,0.1,0.01)),
  TBOrCancer = cond((TB ; Cancer),true,false),
  Bronchitis = flip(condt(Smoker,0.6,0.3)),
  Xray       = flip(condt(TBOrCancer,0.98,0.05)),
  Dyspnoea   = flip(cond(TBOrCancer,
                        cond(Bronchitis,0.9,0.7),
                        cond(Bronchitis,0.8,0.1))),
  
  observe(Bronchitis),
  observe(Dyspnoea),  
  
  if observed_ok then
    add("smoker",Smoker),
    add("tb",TB),
    add("cancer",Cancer),
    add("tb or cancer",TBOrCancer),
    add("bronchitis",Bronchitis),
    add("xray",Xray),
    add("dyspnoea",Dyspnoea),    
    
  end.