/* 

  Football bet simple in Picat.

  Netica model of a football bet.
  From Neapolitan?
  The Netica model use an utility node (u) and a decision node (accept_bet)
  which I try to model here...

  Cf my Gamble model gamble_fotball_bet_simple.rkt

  This program was created by Hakan Kjellerstrand, hakank@gmail.com
  See also my Picat page: http://www.hakank.org/picat/

*/

import ppl_distributions, ppl_utils.
import util.

main => go.

/*

  var : accept bet
  Probabilities:
  yes: 0.5009986684420772
  no: 0.4990013315579228
  mean = [yes = 0.500999,no = 0.499001]

  var : accept bet,u
  Probabilities:
  [no,20]: 0.2939414114513981
  [yes,40]: 0.2936085219707057
  [yes,-20]: 0.2073901464713715
  [no,-5]: 0.2050599201065246
  mean = [[no,20] = 0.293941,[yes,40] = 0.293609,[yes,-20] = 0.20739,[no,-5] = 0.20506]

  var : result
  Probabilities:
  melbwins: 0.5875499334221038
  melbloses: 0.4124500665778961
  mean = [melbwins = 0.58755,melbloses = 0.41245]

  var : u
  Probabilities:
  20: 0.2939414114513981
  40: 0.2936085219707057
  -20: 0.2073901464713715
  -5: 0.2050599201065246
  mean = 12.4501

  var : u accept bet no
  Probabilities:
  0: 0.5009986684420772
  20: 0.2939414114513981
  -5: 0.2050599201065246
  mean = 4.85353

  var : u accept bet yes
  Probabilities:
  0: 0.4990013315579228
  40: 0.2936085219707057
  -20: 0.2073901464713715
  mean = 7.59654

  var : weather
  Probabilities:
  wet: 1.0000000000000000
  mean = [wet = 1.0]

*/
go ?=>
  reset_store,
  run_model(10_000,$model,[show_probs_trunc,mean]),
  nl,
  % show_store_lengths,
  % fail,
  nl.
go => true.
  
  
model() =>
   Weather = categorical([30,70],[wet,dry]),
   AcceptBet = categorical([50,50],[yes,no]),
    
   Result = cond(Weather == wet,
                 categorical([60,40],[melbwins,melbloses]),
                 categorical([25,75],[melbwins,melbloses])),
    
   U = cases([[(Result==melbwins,AcceptBet==yes), 40],
              [(Result==melbwins,AcceptBet=no  ), 20],
              [(Result==melbloses,AcceptBet=yes),-20],
              [(Result==melbloses,AcceptBet==no), -5],
              [true,0]]),
              
   UAcceptBetYes = cond(AcceptBet==yes,U,0),
   UAcceptBetNo  = cond(AcceptBet==no,U,0),   
   
   observe(Weather==wet),
   % observe(Result==melbwins),

  if observed_ok then
    add("weather",Weather),
    add("result",Result),
    add("u",U),
    add("accept bet",AcceptBet),
    add("accept bet,u",[AcceptBet,U]),
    add("u accept bet yes",UAcceptBetYes),
    add("u accept bet no",UAcceptBetNo),    

  end.