/* 

  Oil rig in Picat.

  From BayesiaLab

  This is a port of my Gamble model gamble_oil_rig.rkt

  This program was created by Hakan Kjellerstrand, hakank@gmail.com
  See also my Picat page: http://www.hakank.org/picat/

*/

import ppl_distributions, ppl_utils.

main => go.

/* 
  var : gain
  Probabilities:
  0: 0.5013905442987684
  -70000: 0.2451330949543107
  50000: 0.1553436630909813
  200000: 0.0981326976559396
  mean = 10234.4

  var : oil
  Probabilities:
  dry: 0.4870878029400079
  wet: 0.3108859753675010
  soaking: 0.2020262216924911
  mean = [dry = 0.487088,wet = 0.310886,soaking = 0.202026]

  var : seismic_test
  Probabilities:
  true: 1.0000000000000000
  mean = [true = 1.0]

  var : test_cost
  Probabilities:
  -10: 1.0000000000000000
  mean = -10.0

  var : test_result
  Probabilities:
  no_structure: 0.4294795391338895
  open_structure: 0.3444576877234803
  closed_structure: 0.2260627731426301
  mean = [no_structure = 0.42948,open_structure = 0.344458,closed_structure = 0.226063]



*/
go ?=>
  reset_store(),
  run_model(10_000,$model,[show_probs_trunc,mean]),
  nl,
  fail,
  nl.
go => true.

model() =>
  Structures = [closed_structure,open_structure,no_structure],

  SeismicTest = flip(0.5),
  TestCost = condt(SeismicTest,-10,0),
  Oil = categorical([50,30,20],[dry,wet,soaking]),
  TestResult = condt(SeismicTest,
                      case(Oil,[
                                [dry,categorical([10,30,60],Structures)],
                                [wet,categorical([30,40,40],Structures)],
                                [soaking,categorical([50,40,10],Structures)]
                                ]),
                      "test_result: na"), 
  Drill = flip(0.5),
  Gain = condt(Drill,
                case(Oil,[[dry,-70_000],
                          [wet, 50_000],
                          [soaking,200_000]
                         ]),
                0),

   % observe(not Drill),
   observe(SeismicTest),
   % observe(Oil == soaking),
   % observe(TestResult==open_structure),
   % observe(Drill),

   if observed_ok then
      add_all([ ["seismic_test",SeismicTest],
                ["test_cost",TestCost],
                ["oil",Oil],
                ["test_result",TestResult],
                ["drill",Drill],
                ["gain",Gain]
                ])
   end.